Ukraine Launches New Offensive on Kursk – Guy D. McCardle

In a bold strategic maneuver, Ukrainian forces have launched a renewed offensive into Russia’s Kursk region, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This operation, initiated on January 5, 2025, follows a previous incursion in August 2024, underscoring Ukraine’s commitment to taking the fight beyond its borders.

The January Offensive: A Tactical Overview

According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Ukrainian forces commenced their assault around 9 AM Moscow time, deploying tanks, armored vehicles, and specialized engineering equipment. The primary thrust of the attack originated from the town of Sudzha, advancing towards the villages of Berdin and Bolshoye Soldatskoye. Russian sources claim that these offensive efforts were repelled, with significant Ukrainian equipment losses reported.

However, Ukrainian officials, not surprisingly, paint a different picture. Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, stated that Russian forces are “getting what they deserve,” suggesting successful Ukrainian advances. President Volodymyr Zelensky reported substantial enemy casualties near Makhnovka, indicating that the offensive has inflicted significant losses on Russian and North Korean troops stationed in the region.

Strategic Significance of the Kursk Region

Kursk holds considerable strategic value for both Ukraine and Russia. For Ukraine, operations in this region serve multiple purposes:

The recent Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, with the potential to disrupt Russian military operations on multiple fronts. This operation combines advanced tactics and cutting-edge technology, showcasing Ukraine’s evolving capabilities in modern warfare. A key element of the offensive is Ukraine’s use of electronic warfare (EW), which has effectively neutralized Russian communications and control systems. This disruption has hindered Russia’s ability to operate drones, a critical asset for countering Ukrainian assaults, and has significantly impaired Russian defenses against mechanized attacks. The effectiveness of these tactics has even led Russian military bloggers to suggest unconventional countermeasures, such as using fiber optic cable-controlled drones.

In addition to EW, Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to strike deep with long-range capabilities. HIMARS systems have been employed to target key positions in the Kursk region, particularly near Bolshoye Soldatskoye, to prevent Russian reinforcements and artillery systems from being deployed effectively. These precision strikes have also disrupted Russian drone operations, a critical component of their battlefield intelligence. By coordinating these strikes with EW systems, Ukraine has created a multi-layered strategy that amplifies the impact of each element. While some Ukrainian missiles have been intercepted, the overall approach highlights their ability to combine precision and tactical advantage.

On the ground, Ukrainian forces have made significant tactical advances, catching Russian troops off guard by attacking in multiple directions. The use of EW systems to shield their movements has limited the effectiveness of Russian drones in identifying and targeting Ukrainian units. This advantage, combined with Russia’s apparent inability to adapt quickly to the changing battlefield conditions, has allowed Ukraine to press forward with surprising effectiveness. These advances demonstrate Ukraine’s growing expertise in combined arms warfare, where various military assets work together to overwhelm the enemy.

Another critical aspect of the offensive is Ukraine’s focus on disrupting Russian supply routes. The largely intact road network in the Sumy and Kursk regions has provided Ukrainian forces with opportunities for rapid advancement. By targeting these supply lines, Ukraine aims to undermine Russian logistical efforts, making it increasingly difficult for them to sustain operations in the region. This strategy could have broader implications, potentially weakening Russian positions in other sectors of the conflict.

Perhaps one of the most impressive aspects of the operation is Ukraine’s ability to achieve operational surprise. Ukrainian forces have effectively exploited weaknesses in Russia’s defenses, targeting areas where Russian intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities are less effective. This element of surprise has been made possible by maintaining strict secrecy during the planning and execution phases, as well as by conducting thorough battlefield preparation based on accurate intelligence. By striking where Russian forces are least prepared, Ukraine has kept its adversary off balance, preventing a coordinated response.

The Kursk Offensive is a demonstration of Ukraine’s ability to innovate and adapt in the face of a larger, more resource-rich adversary. By combining electronic warfare, long-range strikes, and ground maneuvers, Ukraine has shown it can challenge Russian forces not just within its borders but also on Russian soil. The disruption of supply lines and the exploitation of weaknesses in Russian defenses could have far-reaching consequences for the broader conflict, putting additional pressure on Russian resources and morale.

As the situation continues to unfold, the impact of this offensive on the larger war remains to be seen. However, it is clear that Ukraine’s evolving military capabilities and its ability to disrupt Russian operations are reshaping the dynamics of the conflict. For Russia, the challenge now lies in countering these sophisticated tactics while grappling with the mounting pressures of a prolonged and increasingly complex war. This offensive in Kursk may well become a turning point, not only for the region but for the broader trajectory of the conflict.

Psychological Impact

The Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region can be viewed as a psychological turning point in the ongoing conflict. For Russian forces and civilians, the incursion has caused widespread insecurity. The unpredictability of Ukrainian attacks within Russian territory has shaken the morale of Russian troops, particularly those who are inexperienced. Reports indicate that this has led to a steep decline in confidence among Russian soldiers, with hundreds surrendering to advancing Ukrainian forces. On the civilian side, the operation has further eroded trust in the Kremlin’s ability to safeguard the country, potentially increasing domestic pressure on Russian leadership to seek a resolution to the conflict.

For Ukraine, the Kursk offensive has provided a morale boost for both its troops and its citizens. As the first major strategic gain since the liberation of Kherson in November 2022, the operation has reignited national pride and determination. Ukrainian soldiers, while acknowledging the sacrifices made, have expressed a sense of satisfaction in taking the fight to Russian soil. However, as the campaign progresses, cracks in morale are beginning to appear among some frontline troops. Reports from commanders suggest that some soldiers are questioning the purpose of occupying Kursk, leading to debates about the broader goals of the operation. These mixed sentiments reflect the psychological complexity of war, where tactical successes can coexist with lingering doubts and sheer exhaustion.

The broader psychological impact of the conflict remains profound, especially for the Ukrainian population. A significant portion of Ukrainians—an estimated 54%—are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), a clear reminder of the human cost of war. The prolonged violence has robbed many of their sense of safety and stability, leading to chronic stress that manifests as anxiety, depression, insomnia, and cognitive issues. This psychological toll highlights the hidden scars of war that extend far beyond the battlefield.

Both sides are also leveraging the psychological dimensions of the conflict through information warfare. Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has been a public relations victory, challenging the narrative that Russian territory is untouchable and boosting Ukraine’s image on the global stage. On the other hand, the SBU has warned of Russian efforts to conduct information and psychological operations, including accusations of war crimes aimed at discrediting Ukrainian forces. These tactics underscore how modern warfare extends beyond bullets and bombs, influencing perceptions and shaping the narrative of the war.

It’s a complicated matter: The Kursk offensive has had a profound psychological impact on both sides of the conflict. While it has significantly undermined Russian morale and civilian confidence, it has also provided Ukraine with a strategic and symbolic victory. However, the war continues to exact a heavy toll, particularly on the Ukrainian population, as the psychological scars of conflict grow deeper with each passing day.

Bargaining Leverage

The Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region could become a pivotal factor in shaping future negotiations between the two countries. Ukraine’s current position in Kursk is seen as a significant bargaining chip, with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noting its importance in any potential peace talks. President Volodymyr Zelensky has echoed this sentiment, calling the incursion an important “trump card” (I’m assuming no pun intended) for Ukraine in future negotiations. Holding territory in Kursk could provide Ukraine with leverage to secure favorable terms in eventual peace discussions, especially as it demonstrates Kyiv’s ability to challenge Russia on its own soil.

The timing and location of the offensive further underscore its strategic importance. Coming just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the operation could influence the conflict’s trajectory and international response. The Biden administration has accelerated military assistance to Ukraine, aiming to strengthen Kyiv’s position before potential talks begin. Ukraine is leveraging this moment to gain as much territory as possible, understanding that its ability to negotiate effectively may depend on the ground it holds.

However, Ukraine faces significant challenges in maintaining its leverage. Russian forces, bolstered by North Korean troops, have reportedly recaptured about half of the territory lost in Kursk. U.S. officials warn that Ukraine could lose the remaining ground within months, potentially undermining its bargaining power. If this occurs, Kyiv’s ability to use Kursk as a negotiating tool could be significantly diminished, shifting the advantage back to Moscow.

From Russia’s perspective, the situation also offers opportunities for leverage. President Vladimir Putin has expressed a willingness to engage in discussions while signaling his readiness to continue the conflict if necessary. Meanwhile, Russian advances in eastern Ukraine are strengthening Moscow’s position, providing Putin with additional bargaining tools in any future talks. The ongoing conflict in Kursk adds complexity to the negotiations, with both sides seeking to maximize their strategic advantages.

The Role of North Korean Troops

In response to manpower shortages, Russia has reportedly deployed North Korean troops to bolster its defenses in Kursk. These units have suffered heavy losses; President Zelensky noted that in battles near Makhnovka, Russian and North Korean forces lost up to a battalion’s worth of soldiers.

The involvement of North Korean troops introduces a complex international dimension to the conflict, raising questions about the extent of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang and the potential implications for regional security dynamics.

Implications for the Larger War

The Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region is a major development with significant implications for the broader conflict. By carrying out operations on Russian soil, Ukraine has shifted the dynamics of the war, proving it can breach Russian defenses and maintain a presence in internationally recognized Russian territory. This marks a strategic turning point, as the conflict is no longer confined to Ukrainian land, potentially changing how both sides approach the war.

Militarily, the offensive is forcing Russia to rethink its strategy. Russian commanders may now need to move troops from other critical areas, such as near Pokrovsk, to reinforce Kursk. This redistribution of forces could weaken Russia’s positions elsewhere, creating new vulnerabilities. Additionally, the offensive poses logistical challenges for Russia, threatening supply networks that support operations in the Kharkiv oblast. If these supply lines are disrupted, it could hurt Russian military effectiveness across multiple fronts.

On a diplomatic level, the Kursk offensive strengthens Ukraine’s position in future negotiations. Holding territory in Kursk provides Kyiv with a potential bargaining chip in peace talks. The operation also draws renewed international attention to the conflict, showcasing Ukraine’s ability to launch significant operations despite the war’s prolonged nature. This could encourage Ukraine’s allies to maintain or even increase their military and financial support.

Ukraine’s tactics in Kursk also highlight its technological and operational advancements. The integration of electronic warfare (EW) systems with long-range strikes and ground operations demonstrates a sophisticated and evolving military approach. By disrupting Russian communications and defenses, these tactics may neutralize some of Russia’s technological advantages. Furthermore, Ukraine’s ability to achieve operational surprise in Kursk—despite modern surveillance technology—shows it can exploit weaknesses in Russia’s intelligence and reconnaissance systems. This success could influence how both sides plan future operations.

Looking forward, the Kursk Offensive is reshaping the war on multiple levels. It reflects Ukraine’s resilience and adaptability while posing new challenges for Russian forces. By impacting military strategy, diplomatic positioning, and international perceptions, the operation underscores Ukraine’s determination to alter the course of the conflict in its favor.

Summing Up

The renewed Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s Kursk region signifies a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict. By extending military operations into Russian territory, Ukraine aims to disrupt Russian military activities, challenge the Kremlin’s narrative of security, and gain leverage in future negotiations. The involvement of North Korean troops further complicates the situation, introducing new international considerations.

As the situation develops, the global community will closely monitor the unfolding events in Kursk, recognizing that the outcomes here could have far-reaching implications for the broader conflict between Ukraine and Russia.