French President Emmanuel Macron’s stance on potentially deploying troops to Ukraine signals a potential shift towards a more direct NATO involvement in the ongoing war there, despite the hesitations of allies like the United States and Germany.
Open to the Possibility of Sending Troops
Late in February, Macron left open the possibility of a NATO ground presence in Ukraine, a move that has since drawn support from Eastern NATO members. General Pierre Schill highlighted the readiness of the French forces, indicating the preparation of 20,000 soldiers within a month and the possibility of leading a combined force of 60,000.
Macron’s proactive approach in Ukraine departs from his earlier diplomatic attempts with Russia, reflecting a desire to lead in addressing European security challenges. According to Nicolas Tenzer, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, Macron’s shift represents a sincere commitment to taking a more assertive stance than that of Germany or the U.S., emphasizing the urgency of action without taboos or red lines.
Putin is Clear
After winning the biggest landslide Russian election in the post-Soviet era, President Vladimir Putin commented on Macron’s stance:
“It is clear to everyone, that this will be one step away from a full-scale World War Three. I think hardly anyone is interested in this.”
The Russian strongman went on to note his belief that NATO military personnel were already involved in the fight in Ukraine, stating that he has heard both English and French spoken on the battlefield. He went on to say, “There is nothing good in this, first of all for them, because they are dying there and in large numbers.”
In continuing his remarks, Putin went on to discuss criticism from the White House, stating that they thought the recent Russian elections were not free and fair. Speaking of the current situation in the United States, Putin said:
“The whole world is laughing at what is happening there. It is just a catastrophe—it is not democracy—what on earth is it?”
Macron Claims Non-Combat Ambitions
Despite rumors and warnings from Russia about deploying French troops, the French government has clarified that any military presence would aim at non-combat support roles such as border security, mine clearance, and cyber defense. Such a deployment could also free up Ukrainian forces for front-line duties while providing valuable modern warfare experience to French soldiers.
The suggestion of French, or any NATO, troops in Ukraine raises concerns about escalating tensions with Russia. Yet, the potential for setting a precedent for other nations to contribute forces is seen as a strategic move. Alongside conventional military support, French forces could facilitate intelligence and special operations with reduced visibility.
It is Doubtful He Will Act Unilaterally
Macron’s strategic ambiguity keeps options on the table, with France unlikely to act unilaterally. Potential collaborations could involve Baltic, Polish, Czech, and Nordic countries, ranging from advisory roles to more direct military engagement without front-line involvement. Such actions would deter Russian aggression while supporting Ukraine’s defense capabilities, albeit with the acknowledgment of significant risks similar to historical UN peacekeeping challenges.
This evolving situation underscores the extreme complexities of international involvement in Ukraine, balancing the need for support against the risks involving NATO member nations in an all-out shooting war.
