Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is leaving Moscow with security gaps and military shortfalls not seen since World War Two. Already taking over 300,000 casualties, the war has been highly deadly to Russia, and it will take the country several decades to build up its pre-war strength again.
One sector of Russia’s military that is currently decimated is the Black Sea Fleet, which the Kremlin sees as its most valuable naval force. Utilizing the navy to gain key victories in Mariupol, Melitopol, and Kherson early in 2022, the fleet has suffered setbacks and large-scale attacks to where it can no longer give naval support to Russian ground forces as it did nearly two years ago.
Several critical strikes against the Black Sea Fleet hamper the navy’s freedom of movement and military capabilities. Russia is looking elsewhere aside from Crimea to host their warships—with occupied Abkhazia being the most talked about alternative.
Ukraine’s Successful Strikes on the Black Sea Fleet
During the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet played a vital role in the carpet bombing of Mariupol and indiscriminate missile attacks on Ukrainian civilians throughout the country. To cripple the naval support element of the Russian forces, Ukraine has successfully targeted the fleet on numerous occasions.
On April 13th, 2022, Ukraine successfully sunk the most prized flagship in Russia’s navy, the Moskva, on Orthodox Easter. The ship reportedly carried the “True Cross.”
Successful drone strikes on the fleet’s headquarters in Crimea took place later that summer, hindering several fixed wings and cutting much-needed air support for Russian forces that were trapped on the right bank of Kherson. Air defense systems, such as S400 and S300 complexes, were also destroyed with the emergence of Storm-Shadow and SCALP missiles, which opened up the fleet to even further attacks.
This past summer, during the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the most devastating strikes occurred against the Black Sea Fleet. On August 9th, 2023, another Ukrainian strike against Russian aviation occurred, taking out several warplanes.
On September 13th, the biggest strike occurred when several Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles incapacitated the Rostov-na-Don submarine and Minsk landing ship at the fleet’s HQ in Sevastopol. Only a week and a half later, the Black Sea Fleet HQ building was hit, killing numerous senior officers.
On Christmas Day 2023, Ukraine once again successfully struck a landing class ship in Crimea that carried large quantities of ammunition.
The strikes prompted Moscow to reconsider other locations in the Black Sea that would enable their fleet to be safe from Ukrainian attacks. Kyiv’s leadership is prioritizing the destruction of the fleet as it will not only hamper the freedom of movement of the Russian navy but also demoralize the country.
Satellite imagery of Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea Fleet via NYT
The Kremlin Eyes Abkhazia as a New Base
Abkhazia has been under de facto Russian influence and occupation since 1992, which resulted in the ethnic cleansing of Georgians. After the 2008 war, Moscow reinforced Abkhazia with an entire division and recognized the proxy region, which most United Nations rejected.
Kremlin officials, such as Dmitri Medvedev, are floating the idea of potentially annexing Abkhazia into the Russian Federation, drawing condemnation from Georgia. Nevertheless, Moscow, which invested much in their carving of Georgia, looks to firmly put the breakaway region, along with South Ossetia, under direct rule as Russia showed the world they are capable of illegal annexations.
The proxy head of Abkhazia, Asian Bzhania, further alluded to joining a Russian superstate in August 2022, which would include Belarus and parts of the occupied regions of Ukraine where 400,000 plus Russian soldiers remain.
Where Ukraine has a roadmap for NATO membership and European Union ambitions, Georgia remains in perpetual limbo. Along with having a pro-Russian government, Tbilisi’s military is still not up to standards to combat a weakened Russian army, even after the latter suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties in Ukraine.
Russian tourists fleeing Abkhazia’s resorts in mid-August 1992 as fighting broke out. With a hard-line separatist leader in power in Abkhazia, armored columns from independent Georgia rolled into Abkhazia in order to restore Tbilisi’s authority. Via RFEL
Potential Plans of the Fleet if it Moves to Occupied Georgia
Moving the Black Sea Fleet to Abkhazia has pros and cons for the Russian Federation. Moving the fleet to Abkhazia will be far safer for the Russian navy than Crimea.
Active strikes by Ukrainian drones and the Air Force risk the fleet’s naval capabilities. With a move to Abkhazia, Russia’s naval force will be at minimal risk with a docile Georgian nation. However, placing the Black Sea Fleet in Georgia could be the kryptonite of Putin’s regime and hold on to power.
The initial invasion of Ukraine and the seizure of Crimea by the “little green men” was orchestrated by Putin to directly seize Sevastopol and the rest of the peninsula for the sole purpose of maintaining the Black Sea Fleet without Ukrainian involvement. Later, in 2022, the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine took place primarily from the fleet’s HQ of Crimea into the South.
Russian forces, taking heavy casualties the past two years, meant to reinforce the fleet’s presence in Crimea, will become even more demoralized if the navy is moved to Abkhazia, meaning their hundreds of thousands of casualties were for minimal gains at best.
A permanent headquarters in Abkhazia will also hamper Moscow’s hope of lifting many sanctions. Already hinting at annexing Abkhazia, Russia would find itself in the same position with illegal annexations and pretexts in Ukraine, which would only add to more sanctions on an already stretched-thin Russian economy.
Digressing away from Sevastopol and the rest of Crimea to Abkhazia may be a more secure alternative for the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Ultimately, a potential move will come with blowback. Initiating Europe’s most significant war since WWII just to secure the Crimean Peninsula, Putin’s hold on Russia will become even weaker now hundreds of thousands of men were sacrificed for nothing if the fleet is indeed moved.
